Poll: Should you make investment predictions that can backfire?
The investment strategies of Bill Gross, founder and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, influence the asset allocations of investment professionals around the world. Should he also influence your approach to your market commentary?
“Vigilante on the move,” a profile of PIMCO that appeared in The Economist, got me thinking with the following paragraph.
“Some colleagues might welcome a lower profile for Mr Gross, whose utterances occasionally backfire. In a typically punchy commentary in January he recommended avoiding British government debt, which was ‘resting on a bed of nitroglycerine’. But gilts failed to explode, and PIMCO was forced to reverse course.”
When you make investment predictions, you’re bound to be wrong some of the time.
Is this embarrassment something that you should avoid at all costs by shunning predictions and strong opinions? Some managers hedge their bets with wording such as “a continued recovery is more likely than a double-dip recession, however….” Or, should you embrace controversy?
What strategy will help you most with clients, prospects, and referral sources?
Please answer the poll that will appear in the right-hand column of this blog until I take it down next month. I’ll comment on the results in my September e-newsletter. Or you can leave comments below.
Clients and prospects will respond best when asset managers’ market commentary…
- Never makes predictions
- Makes qualified predictions that give them an “out”
- Sometimes makes predictions
- Always expresses at least one strong opinion
- None of the above (Please leave a comment)