Tag Archive for: economy

Poll: Which should investors fear more? Which #CFA2010 speakers were right?

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CFA Institute Annual Conference speakers raised many concerns about the future during the conference, which ran from May 16 to May 19 in Boston. But they didn’t always agree with one another. Their mixed opinions inspired this month’s poll.

Which do you fear more? 
* Inflation or deflation? 
* Continued fiscal stimulus or spending cuts to focus on deficit reduction?

Please answer the poll in the right-hand column of this blog. I’ll report on the results in the July issue of my e-newsletter.

For a sampling of the mixed opinions, see
* Memo from Van Hoisington: Inflation Won’t Be a Problem for Some Time to Come on the CFA Institute’s conference blog
* Why Niall Ferguson’s Forbidden FT Headline is the Key to Understanding Sovereign Risk on the CFA Institute’s conference blog
* Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff Offers a Historical Perspective on Financial Crises on the CFA Institute’s conference blog
* R Koo, “Lessons from Japan: Fighting a Balance Sheet Recession”
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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

R Koo, "Lessons from Japan: Fighting a Balance Sheet Recession" at #CFA2010

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Lessons from Japan? What lessons can we learn from Japan? They did everything wrong, didn’t they?

The questions above are the reactions that Richard Koo, chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute and author of The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession often gets when he presents on  “Lessons from Japan: Fighting a Balance Sheet Recession,” as he did on May 18 at the CFA Institute’s annual conference.

Koo made the case that the U.S. should continue fiscal stimulus until deleveraging by the private sector is complete. If we fail to do so, we risk a double-dip recession once people become complacent about economic recovery, he said. Meanwhile, the deleveraging is necessary because of “the bursting of a debt-financed asset price bubble that leaves many private-sector balance sheet liabilities than assets.”

The U.S. recession is a lot more like Japan’s than most people realize. Koo’s first graph showed a striking similarity between the path of U.S. housing prices, 1992-2010, and Japanese housing prices, 1977-1995.

Japan’s recession management has been more successful than you might think. This is especially true in the sense that Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew during the recession despite massive loss of wealth and private sector deleveraging, Koo said. 

Japan could have done even better if the government had consistently supplied fiscal stimulus until private sector deleveraging ended, Koo said. He estimated that Japan might have suffered only seven to eight years, instead of 15 years, if it hadn’t tried to “pull the plug” on fiscal stimulus.

The U.S. has a tough task in front of it. Maintaining fiscal stimulus for an entire period is almost impossible during a peacetime democracy, said Koo. 

Here’s a startling pronouncement: The U.S. has overtaken Japan in savings. This is the result of the recession, said Koo. This jump in the savings rate means that the U.S. could internally finance its fiscal stimulus. 

Interest rates will stay low, said Koo, because nobody is borrowing or lending. We have to get corporations to borrow money before we can even contemplate reducing the budget deficit, said Koo.

Some people think that the U.S. will be different from Japan because it cut interest rates more aggressively. But Koo countered that monetary policy doesn’t have much impact in this kind of recession because you can’t spur borrowing.

MAY 19 UPDATE: Here’s link to Bloomberg.com interview with Richard Koo on the topic of his #CFA2010 presentation.

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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

If you enjoy my #CFA2010 tweets…

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…you may also enjoy my free monthly e-newsletter with practical tips for your client communications. You’ll also find at least one investment or wealth management article. 

I often report on presentations to the Boston Security Analysts Society, so you know you’ll see topics of interest to CFA charterholders.

Topics in the May 2010 issue included

  • Watch out for inflation, says veteran value investor, Jean-Marie Eveillard
    Treasurys vs. Treasuries–Which is the right spelling? 
  • How to guest-blog on personal finance or investing 
  • Poll: How do you sign your business emails? 
  • Last month’s reader poll about ghostbloggers 
  • Morgan Creek Capital’s Yusko on investing

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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Morgan Creek Capital’s Yusko on investing

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“Alternative Thinking About Investments” was the topic addressed by Mark Yusko, CEO and chief investment officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management, when he spoke at the annual conference of the Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts on May 7. Yusko’s wide-ranging talk was provocative and entertaining, with some great one-liners that became tweets that I quote below.


Alternatives deserve more attention

Yusko thinks investors should put more into alternative strategies. A small allocation simply cannot have a big enough impact.

This is a lesson that target date fund (TDF) managers should consider, suggested Ryan Alfred, co-founder and president of BrightScope, in response to my tweet. As he explained,

Going back to Yusko, he also suggested that your clients should have at least one-third of their assets in illiquid investments because such investments “win” after recessions. He’s assuming that your clients have plenty of money that they plan to pass on to others in their wills. Yusko didn’t specify which illiquid assets he was talking about.


Provocative 
Yusko isn’t fond of mainstream media. “Cancel your subscriptions to The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. It’s all wrong, it’s all biased.” He used the example of the war between Russia and Georgia to make his case, mentioning that Morgan Creek pays someone to read Russian newspapers for them. 

Yusko also spoke in favor of high fees. He seemed to suggest that fees rise along with the investment manager’s ability to deliver performance.

Humorous Yusko 
In closing, here is some Yusko humor.


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Watch out for inflation, says veteran value manager Jean-Marie Eveillard

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Value investing was the focus of the presentation by Jean-Marie Eveillard, senior adviser and board trustee to the First Eagle Funds and senior vice president of First Eagle Investment Management, LLC, to the Boston Security Analysts Society (BSAS) on April 13. Eveillard also opined on the world economic outlook.

Three economic scenarios
Eveillard thinks there are three potential directions for the U.S. from here.
1. A typical post-WWII expansion— In this scenario, the authorities lever up the system again, so we get a three- to five-year expansion, Eveillard said. This would mean that we are still in a post-World War II environment. Eveillard is concerned about the short-term, even speculative orientation of investors in an environment in which equity mutual funds average 100% annual turnover.
2. Japanese-style stagflation–As the private sector continues to deleverage, the U.S. might fall into stagflation similar to that experienced in Japan for the past 20 years. This would happen if lenders don’t want to lend and borrowers don’t want to borrow, despite the government’s efforts to combat their resistance. Eveillard considers this unlikely because, unlike the Japanese, Americans are not resigned to economic stagnation. We’ll act.
3. Negative, unintended consequences including inflation–Eveillard is concerned about the unprecedented scale of the U.S. government’s intervention. This includes a gigantic budget deficit, zero interest rates, and the ballooning of the federal balance sheet.

The third scenario is most likely, said Eveillard, who spoke about the lessons of the Austrian school of economists. The main lesson: If you’re stupid enough to get into a really bad credit boom, you’ll have a bad credit bust. However, the Austrians also say not to do a short-term patch after a bust because you’ll compromise the medium-term and long-term recovery. This seems to be one of the roots of Eveillard’s fear of the third scenario.

But Eveillard’s inflation fears haven’t made him give up on stocks. People make the mistake of thinking that inflation is all bad for stocks, he said. He believes in owning the stocks of companies that are able to raise prices as their costs rise. For example, that’s something that newspapers were able to do back in the 1970s.

Eveillard did not comment on specific stocks that he favors now. “If I knew what my five best ideas were, that’s all I would own,” he quipped.

Benjamin Graham and The Intelligent Investor
Eveillard spent most of his time with the BSAS talking about the history of value investing. For him, the two big names are Benjamin Graham, author of The Intelligent Investor, and well-known investor Warren Buffett.

Graham’s emphasis on the role of humility, caution, and order in investing make sense to Eveillard. He illustrated Graham’s approach to investing as finding a business with an intrinsic value of $50 per share, buying it at $30-$35 per share, and starting to sell it at $40. This is what Warren Buffett called the cigar butt–one puff and it’s over, said Eveillard.

Although Eveillard conceded that Graham’s approach to investing is static and balance sheet-oriented, it still offers opportunities. There are “Ben Graham-type stocks” in Japan, especially among small caps, he said. Because “net cash is greater than market cash…you get the business for less than nothing,” he said.

Warren Buffett added qualitative to quantitative
Benjamin Graham was “all about numbers.” Even today,  value investors all start with companies’ publicly available financial information, and then move on only if they’re satisfied with the public numbers, said Eveillard.

Warren Buffett added qualitative analysis on top of Graham’s quantitative analysis, said Eveillard. For example, Buffett likes companies that have a “moat,” a sustainable competitive advantage.

Comparing Graham and Buffett, Eveillard said that the Graham approach is much less time-consuming, though potentially less rewarding, than the Buffett approach. The First Eagle Funds started out in Graham style, then switched to Buffett’s style after adding the analysts that enabled them to do the necessary research, said Eveillard.

The case for value investing
Eveillard gave two reasons for pursuing value investing. First, it makes sense. Second, it works over time. He doesn’t buy the argument that value investing works only in the U.S. In fact, First Eagle has never opened offices overseas because it doesn’t want to be influenced by how the locals think. Still, he noted, “There are few genuine value investors in the U.S., but even fewer outside the U.S.”

Why so few value investors? For starters, it’s hard work. “Sell-side research is seldom useful” because of its six- to 12-month time horizon, said Eveillard. When your time horizon is five years, it makes a big difference in how you look at a business. That’s why First Eagle’s 11 analysts are “the true heart of our operation,” he said.

The psychological hurdle to value investing is even higher than the research hurdle. It’s not easy sticking with value investing’s long-term time horizon. That’s especially true when it means your investment performance may lag its benchmark in the short-term. First Eagle lost seven out of 10 investors during the period when its performance lagged from Fall 1997 to Spring 2000, said Eveillard.

To be a value investor, “there has to be a willingness on the part of the investor to take the short-term pain.” In addition, you have to be willing to move away from the herd when it’s nearing the cliff, said Eveillard, citing Warren Buffett. Value investing takes a temperament that many lack.

If you’d like to learn more about Eveillard’s views, he’s scheduled to appear on Bloomberg TV on Wed., April 14 April 14 at 5 p.m. EST, according to the First Eagle Funds website.
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The next session of “How to Write Blog Posts People Will Read: A Five-Week Teleclass for Financial Advisors“ starts April 22. Sign up to receive my free monthly newsletter.Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

"Stiglitz: U.S. Economy Will Falter without More Stimulus" in Advisor Perspectives

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The U.S. government has botched its handling of the economy, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. He explained how the U.S. created the global recession – and how we can get out of it – in a public presentation on his new book, Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy, at the Brattle Theatre in Cambridge, Mass., on January 25. 

Continue reading my article on Joseph Stiglitz on AdvisorPerspectives.com.


By the way, a reader asked “What about the contribution to the financial crisis of the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and the activities of politicians who encouraged reckless lending?” Stiglitz agrees that they also contributed. In fact, as a member of the Clinton administration, he fought Glass-Steagall’s repeal.
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Susan B. Weiner, CFA
If you’re struggling to pump out a steady flow of good blog posts, check out my five-week teleclass for financial advisors, “How to Write Blog Posts People Will Read,” and sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

J.P. Morgan Funds’ measured optimism about U.S. economy

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The economy is on a rebound, but it’s a long way back to normal, said David P. Kelly, chief market strategist, J.P. Morgan Funds, to NICSA’s East Coast Regional Meeting on Jan. 14, 2010. 

A Jupiter of a recession
Economists have seen recessions like 2008-2009 before. so they can predict the broad shape of the economic recovery, according to Kelly.

U.S. recessions are just like the solar system. There are big planets and little planets, but no medium planets, said Kelly. “This was a Jupiter among recessions,” said Kelly. Even though it’s the largest recession since World War II, it’s not unprecedented. In fact, it’s not that different in size from the recessions of 1957, 1980, and 1982. As a result, he foresees a robust recovery.

“The bigger the recession, the bigger the bounceback,” said Kelly. 

Keys to U.S. economic growth 
The U.S. economy will rebound strongly because the following areas became so weak, they must bounce back, said Kelly.
1. Auto consumption
2. Residential construction
3. Equipment
4. Inventories 

Employment outlook 
Kelly made the following predictions

  • Jobs will begin to grow in the first quarter of 2010, which will produce income to support economic expansion.
  • Unemployment will rise as new jobs are created. This is because unemployment statistics are calculated using the number of people actively seeking jobs. People will return to the market as they see better prospects for success.
  • It’ll take five years to get back to full employment. Employment may rise to 9% by year-end 2010. 

More predictions by Kelly

  • Corporate profits will improve. This is because of low costs, low interest rates, and especially because of the lack of upward pressure on wages. On the wage issue, Kelly quoted the singer Beyonce, saying that employees realize that employers know “I can have another you in a minute.”
  • The risk of deflation is greater than the risk of inflation.
  • The biggest risks to Kelly’s positive scenario are conflict with Iran, which would drive up oil prices; and  banks finding it difficult to lend due to regulation, taxes, and uncertainty about regulation and taxes.

Opportunities 

  • It’s not too late to get back into stocks. Some people worry that maybe they “missed the train.” Davis’ reply? “This is a very long train on a very long platform.” He noted that stocks have recovered less than half of what they lost during the bear market. Also, there’s a lot of cash on the side lines that will eventually flow back into the stock market. On the flip side, bonds have become more risky, so now is a good time to overweight stocks relative to bonds, he said.
  • Non-U.S. economies will continue to outperform the U.S., and international stocks are cheaper than U.S. stocks. Also, a modest fall in the dollar will amplify gains somewhat for U.S. investors.
  • During Q&A, Kelly said, “I think buying a house will turn out to be a good investment, even over the next five years.”
  • On the topic of gold, Kelly said he wouldn’t put his mother into gold, even though the gold bubble has the potential to continue. The fundamentals don’t support gold’s price rise in 2009 because gold is supposed to appreciate in times of rising volatility and rising inflation. Meanwhile, volatility, as measured by the VIX has fallen and so has inflation. This bubble will eventually pop, he said.

Interesting graphs supported Kelly’s presentations. Financial advisors who participate in the J.P. Morgan’s Market Insights program can find the graphs in the firm’s quarterly Guide to the Markets.

Recovery will be stronger than consensus, says Barclays Capital chief U.S. economist

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“U.S. economic growth is recovering robustly, receiving the usual cyclical boost from housing and inventories,” said Dean Maki, managing director and chief U.S. economist of Barclays Capital in his “U.S. Economic Outlook” presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society (BSAS) on December 8. 

Maki said the U.S. economy will recover strongly, as it typically has done following past recessions. He disagreed with the many pundits who say “This time is different” and that the economic recovery will be drawn out because tight credit will keep consumer spending weak. Credit is always tight following a recession, Maki said. “In these strong [economic] recoveries of the past, we haven’t needed strong credit growth,” he added. 

Maki discussed the following drivers of strong economic growth:
•    Production is set to grow much faster than final demand.
•    Housing is starting to rise because of its greater affordability.
•    Business has cut too much during downturn, so companies must boost spending soon to grow profits.

Some predictions
•    Real GDP will hit 5% by the first quarter of 2010 and stay at or above 3% in 2010.
•    Unemployment has peaked and will fall to 9.1% by the fourth quarter of 2010.
•    Inflation–and the fed funds rate–will remain low. However, the Fed will raise rates in the second half of 2010.

A couple of unexpected developments could derail Maki’s predictions, he said. One is a sharp fall in the stock market. The other is a sharp rise in commodity/energy prices as a result of global economic growth. 

Do you agree with Maki’s predictions? Please comment.

Dec. 11 update: 

If you’re a member of the BSAS LinkedIn group, you can join a conversation there about Maki’s talk.

Financial writer’s clinic: Great title, lousy intro

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“When Will Housing Recover?” This title reeled me in. I flipped directly to the article, bypassing two others. But what I found disappointed me. I’ll use this article’s mistakes to suggest rules you can follow in your article introductions.

The writing problem: Boring introduction
Then article’s first paragraph stopped me cold. It held a long-winded description of a home price index’s composition. It’s information that I might exile to a footnote if I wrote a white paper on this topic.

Here’s the first sentence of the article: “The S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price indices measure the growth in value of residential real estate in various regions of the United States.”  The first paragraph devotes 247 words to the details of the markets tracked by these 23 indices.

Three rules for an interesting introduction
1. Answer the key question. That’s “What’s in it for your readers, if they slog through your article?” The authors nailed this question perfectly with their title. But they forgot about it when they wrote their introduction.
2. Keep it short. Direct marketers have discovered that readers start to lose interest once a paragraph runs longer than 42 words. Sure, investment professionals have more patience than folks opening junk mail. Still, the authors’ 247 words–almost six paragraphs of words according to direct marketers’ standards–is way too long.
3. Don’t save the good stuff for your conclusion. If you’re like me, you learned in school that you should build your argument logically to a conclusion. Throw that habit away, if you want people to read what you write. At a minimum, hint at your conclusion in the introduction to your article.

My rewrite of the article’s introduction

Everybody wants to know when housing will recover. But you can’t make a meaningful estimate until you understand the data. It seems to us that the severity of the decline has been overstated because of problems with the S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price indices. Once we understand the data better, we can make a case for housing getting on the road to recovery by the second quarter of 2010.

The indices are dominated by states, such as California and Nevada, that have experienced a housing boom followed by a bust. In fact, price increases and declines vary greatly by state. The price of housing in roughly two-thirds of our 50 states have risen–or fallen by no more than 5%–during the two years since the fourth quarter of 2006.

My rewrite isn’t perfect. Some of the sentences are awfully long. But I feel confident that it’s more engaging than the original. What do you think?

 


Fidelity expert: "CMBS Challenges & Opportunity: Are CMBS Securities Mispriced?"

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By some measures, commercial mortage-backed securities (CMBS) are in good shape, according to Mark Snyderman, portfolio manager and CMBS group leader, Fidelity Investments, who presented on “CMBS Challenges & Opportunity: Are CMBS Securities Mispriced?” to the Boston Security Analysts Society on May 5. Still, he answered “No” to the big question posed by his title.


Good news: New construction and cash flow growth
Commercial property is not overbuilt, said Snyderman. In fact, in recent years, new construction has lagged the 2% growth rate needed to keep up with population growth and replacement of obsolete buildings. So, commercial property rents and occupancy should fare relatively well.


Commercial property growth has fallen from its peak. But even in 2009, Snyderman expects it will be flat or perhaps down by single digits. So, cash flow isn’t much of a problem.


Problem: Lack of debt financing to squeeze mortgage borrowers
CMBS delinquency rates could rise to roughly 20 times their current level, which is below 2%, said Snyderman. Commercial real estate is suffering as debt financing becomes less available for highly leveraged properties purchased at historically high valuations. The disappearance of cheap debt financing and concerns about cash flow growth suggest that CMBS delinquencies will increase dramatically.


Pessimism will create opportunities
Investors must approach CMBS cautiously, said Snyderman. They can’t rely on ratings because the ratings agencies haven’t adequately reformed themselves. Instead, investors must do old-fashioned, bottom-up credit analysis on a property-by-property basis. It’s also helpful to consider the “vintage” of a CMBS deal, even though there are deal-by-deal differences. 


Right now, we’re in a wave of market optimism, said Snyderman. But, he predicted, a wave of pessimism will bring attractive opportunities in CMBS.